DOE’s Liftoff Report on GSHPs: What Are the Implications for Drillers?
Spoiler alert: There are practically endless opportunities.
By Jeff Hammond
“Geothermal heating and cooling technologies can simultaneously help achieve energy security, energy
efficiency, customer resilience, and energy affordability goals at scale and help manage emerging load and peak demand growth issues.”—U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Geothermal Heating and Cooling
The quote sums up the positive impact that ground source (geothermal) heat pumps have on the nation and calls out opportunities for drillers, excavators, HVAC contractors, and many others to be part of the solution.
One of the factors leading to the publication of the Liftoff report is concern for the unprecedented growth of the U.S. power grid, particularly to support high performance computing and artificial intelligence (AI) applications.
Figure 1. Snapshot of the small existing workforce in geothermal heat pump-related occupations, with bottlenecking in an even smaller drilling workforce that is in high demand and under constant flux. Source: Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Notes: Detailed occupational employment shown as number of workers in survey year. BLS estimates do not include self-employed workers. For details on BLS’ calculation methods see “Base-year employment” under Calculation: Handbook of Methods: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov).
The report shows the potential for increased power demand over the next 10 years while peak power demand may also be entering a new era of growth in both the summer and winter. The use of ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) for heating and cooling can significantly lower the demand on the power grid. A Maryland study referenced in the report found that every ton of GSHP technology deployed can reduce 1 kW of grid demand.
The report calls attention to the great value proposition for GSHPs (energy savings, grid impact, long life expectancy), but upfront cost has been a limiting factor in growth of the industry.
However, the report calls out the long lifespan of the system, including the ground heat exchanger, which the report notes a lifespan of 100 years or more. This approach suggests that there is an awareness issue on the benefits of the technology. The buried portion of the ground heat exchanger is not exposed to extreme weather events or even fires, much like the installation of a septic system in rural areas.
The discussion on gas utility advantages underscores the value of the ground heat exchanger, which could be a less expensive option than replacing aging gas infrastructure.
Utility involvement and the popularity of Thermal Energy Networks (TENs) can provide a completely different business model, especially with utility ownership or on-bill financing of the ground heat exchanger. The report states that the industry is growing at a rate of about 4.6% per year, which is about half of the annual growth in Europe.
Utility involvement, state incentives, concern for the impact on the electric grid, and awareness of the technology could provide a major “liftoff” in the industry, resulting in expected installations of more than 5% of residential buildings and more than 2% of commercial buildings in some states, less in other states. The current GSHP market is about 1% of the HVAC market, according to most industry reports.
What Does This Mean to Drillers?
Figure 1 shows the existing workforce, comparing HVAC technicians to driller technicians, larger by almost a factor of 25! The good news is that there are practically endless opportunities for drillers in the GSHP industry.
Of course, the difficulty is ramping up for growth before demand requires the higher capacity—the classic “chicken and egg” scenario.
Achieving “Liftoff,” according to the report, requires five major imperatives allowing expansion of the market for GSHPs:
- Scale and train workforce.
- Develop and standardize market-ready products and protocols.
- Develop ratemaking or other frameworks to incorporate benefits and refine planning.
- Clarify and standardize regulations.
- Realize network effects (uniform or standardized TENs business models).
Figure 2. All figures courtesy author.
The National Ground Water Association and International Ground Source Heat Pump Association (and members) can work together on all of these items to help drillers and HVAC contractors prepare for the market demand.
For example, the recently published C448 Bi-national (U.S./Canada) Standard in May, Design and installation of ground source heat pump systems for commercial and residential buildings, is referenced in the report. For the industry to succeed (i.e., quality design and installation), consistency is key.
In fact, the IGSHPA Board of Directors voted to sunset the 2017 IGSHPA standards when the 2025 edition of C448 was published, helping to provide consistency. The last thing a driller needs to prepare for is a different grouting requirement in one county versus another county in the same state.
NGWA’s courses, certifications, and standards as well as IGSHPA’s new ANSI-accredited training program and CSA/IGSHPA certifications being rolled out this fall provide the pathways needed for growth.
Don’t miss the opportunity to get involved in this exciting opportunity. As shown in Figure 2, ground source (geothermal) heat pump technology checks all the boxes!
Jeff Hammond is executive director at the International Ground Source Heat Pump Association, a nonprofit, member-driven organization established in 1987 to advance ground source heat pump (GSHP) technology on local, state/provincial, national, and international levels. Hammond is chair of the ANSI/CSA/IGSHPA C448 GSHP Standard and can be reached at jeff@igshpa.org.
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